USD/JPY Rate Breakout Clouded with Mixed Signals

USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 54.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.21 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Dec 29 when USDJPY traded near 113.202; price has moved 3.1% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 3.2% lower than yesterday and 7.2% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.8% lower than yesterday and 7.7% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDJPY trading bias.

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